Koto Network Simulation Methodology
This document describes the calculation methods, assumptions, and parameters used in the Koto Network simulation system.
1. Food Production Calculations
1.1 Growing System Types
| System Type |
Yield (kg/m²/year) |
Initial Cost (€/m²) |
Annual Maintenance (€/m²) |
Notes |
| Vegetable Garden |
2-4 |
5-10 |
2-4 |
Intensive annual crops |
| Greenhouse |
8-15 |
100-200 |
10-20 |
Year-round production in Nordic climate |
| Forest Garden |
1-2 (years 1-3)
3-5 (years 4-7)
5-8 (years 8+) |
10-20 |
2-5 |
Perennial polyculture, increasing yields over time |
1.2 Food Self-Sufficiency
Daily Requirements per Person:
- Energy: 2000-2500 kcal
- Protein: 50-70g
- Vegetables: 500-800g
- Fruits: 200-400g
Land Required per Person (estimated):
- Vegetable Garden: 400-600 m² (vegan diet)
- Mixed System: 300-500 m² (with forest garden)
- Greenhouse: 50-100 m² (supplementary)
Note: These are conservative estimates for Nordic climate (Finland). Actual yields vary significantly based on:
- Soil quality and management
- Growing season length (100-180 days depending on location)
- Experience and skill level
- Crop selection and diversity
2. Economic Model
2.1 Unit Establishment Costs
| Item |
Cost Range (€) |
Notes |
| Land Purchase |
20,000-100,000 |
Varies greatly by location and size (1-5 ha) |
| Basic Infrastructure |
30,000-80,000 |
Water, electricity, access roads |
| Initial Buildings |
50,000-200,000 |
Minimal housing, storage, workshop |
| Tools & Equipment |
10,000-30,000 |
Basic farming and building tools |
| Initial Planting |
5,000-15,000 |
Seeds, trees, soil amendments |
| Total |
115,000-425,000 |
Highly variable by region and approach |
2.2 Annual Operating Costs per Person
Basic Living Costs (Finland):
- Housing maintenance: €200-400/month
- Utilities: €100-200/month
- Food (supplementary): €100-200/month
- Healthcare/Insurance: €50-150/month
- Transportation: €50-150/month
- Miscellaneous: €100-200/month
Total: €7,200-16,800/year per person
2.3 Income Sources
- External work: Part-time or remote work to cover basic costs initially
- Network support: Mutual aid from other units in the network
- Product sales: Surplus food, crafts, services (developing over time)
- Hosting/Education: Workshops, tours, volunteering programs
3. Carbon Sequestration
3.1 Sequestration Rates by System
| System |
CO₂ Sequestration (tons/ha/year) |
Method |
| Mature Forest |
8-12 |
Tree biomass accumulation |
| Forest Garden (mature) |
5-10 |
Mixed woody perennials |
| Improved Pasture |
2-4 |
Soil organic matter |
| Vegetable Garden (no-till) |
1-3 |
Soil organic matter, compost |
| Conventional Agriculture |
-1 to +1 |
Often net carbon source |
Climate Change Impact: The simulation includes warming trends:
- Growing season extension: +2-3 weeks by 2050
- Increased extreme weather: More droughts and floods
- Pest pressure: New species moving north
- Yield uncertainty: ±20-30% annual variation
4. Network Economics
4.1 Mutual Aid System
The network operates on gift economy principles with practical considerations:
Unit Support Decision Logic:
1. Calculate unit's financial trajectory (3-year projection)
2. If unit can become sustainable: Provide support
3. If systemic issues: Restructure or consolidate
4. Network reserve minimum: €20,000 per unit
4.2 Resource Sharing
- Labor: Work exchanges, seasonal help
- Knowledge: Skills training, mentoring
- Equipment: Shared tools and machinery
- Food: Surplus redistribution
- Financial: Interest-free loans, emergency funds
4.3 New Unit Establishment
Network-funded units are established when:
- Network reserve > €150,000 per existing unit
- Available interested people (waiting list)
- Suitable land identified
- Existing units are stable and sustainable
5. Simulation Parameters
5.1 Time Scale
- Simulation period: 2024-2044 (20 years)
- Time step: Monthly calculations
- Starting conditions: 1 unit with 3 people, €50,000 capital
- Goal: 20 units by 2044 across Europe
5.2 Growth Model
Network Growth Logic:
- Year 1-2: Single unit establishes (break-even by year 2)
- Year 3: Second unit founded (network support)
- Year 4-10: Gradual expansion (1-2 units per year)
- Year 11-20: Accelerated growth as network matures
People join through:
- Personal connections (60%)
- Network visibility/publicity (30%)
- Independent initiatives joining network (10%)
6. Wellbeing Metrics
6.1 Measured Factors
| Category |
Indicators |
Target Range |
| Physical Health |
Nutrition quality, physical activity, rest |
7-9/10 |
| Mental Health |
Stress levels, satisfaction, purpose |
7-9/10 |
| Social Connection |
Community ties, support networks |
7-9/10 |
| Purpose & Meaning |
Personal growth, contribution, autonomy |
7-9/10 |
| Environment |
Nature connection, living conditions |
7-9/10 |
Wellbeing surveys conducted quarterly. Results inform community decisions and network support allocation.
7. Data Sources & References
- Yield data: Finnish food production statistics, permaculture research
- Cost estimates: Finnish construction and land prices 2024
- Carbon sequestration: IPCC reports, forest inventory data
- Climate projections: Finnish Meteorological Institute
- Nutritional requirements: WHO, Finnish nutrition recommendations
8. Limitations & Uncertainties
This simulation is a model with inherent limitations:
- Simplified human behavior (real communities are complex!)
- Weather variability not fully captured
- Personal circumstances and life events not modeled
- Political/regulatory changes not included
- Market dynamics simplified
- Assumes reasonable cooperation (not guaranteed!)
Use as planning tool, not prediction!