================================================================================ KOTO NETWORK SIMULATION - CALCULATION METHODOLOGY REPORT ================================================================================ Generated: 2024-12-09 Version: 1.0 ================================================================================ 1. FOOD PRODUCTION CALCULATIONS ================================================================================ 1.1 Growing System Yields -------------------------- System Type | Yield (kg/m²/yr) | Initial Cost | Annual Maintenance ---------------------|------------------|--------------|------------------- Vegetable Garden | 2-4 | €5-10/m² | €2-4/m² Greenhouse | 8-15 | €100-200/m² | €10-20/m² Forest Garden | 1-2 (yr 1-3) | €10-20/m² | €2-5/m² | 3-5 (yr 4-7) | | | 5-8 (yr 8+) | | 1.2 Food Self-Sufficiency Requirements -------------------------------------- Per Person Daily: - Energy: 2000-2500 kcal - Protein: 50-70g - Vegetables: 500-800g - Fruits: 200-400g Land Required (Nordic climate, vegan diet): - Vegetable Garden only: 400-600 m²/person - Mixed System (garden + forest): 300-500 m²/person - Greenhouse (supplementary): 50-100 m²/person Note: Conservative estimates accounting for: - Nordic growing season (100-180 days) - Crop diversity needs - Preservation losses (10-20%) - Learning curve for new growers ================================================================================ 2. ECONOMIC MODEL ================================================================================ 2.1 Unit Establishment Costs (Finland, 2024) -------------------------------------------- Item | Cost Range (€) | Notes ---------------------|-------------------|--------------------------- Land Purchase | 20,000-100,000 | 1-5 ha, varies by location Infrastructure | 30,000-80,000 | Water, power, roads Basic Buildings | 50,000-200,000 | Housing, storage, workshop Tools & Equipment | 10,000-30,000 | Farming and building tools Initial Planting | 5,000-15,000 | Seeds, trees, amendments ---------------------|-------------------|--------------------------- TOTAL | 115,000-425,000 | Highly variable 2.2 Annual Operating Costs per Person (Finland) ----------------------------------------------- Category | Monthly (€) | Annual (€) ---------------------|--------------|------------ Housing Maintenance | 200-400 | 2,400-4,800 Utilities | 100-200 | 1,200-2,400 Food (supplementary) | 100-200 | 1,200-2,400 Healthcare/Insurance | 50-150 | 600-1,800 Transportation | 50-150 | 600-1,800 Miscellaneous | 100-200 | 1,200-2,400 ---------------------|--------------|------------ TOTAL | 600-1,300 | 7,200-15,600 2.3 Income Strategy ------------------- Phase 1 (Year 1-2): External Work Dominant - Part-time or remote work to cover costs - Target: €1,000-1,500/month per working adult - Food self-sufficiency: 20-40% Phase 2 (Year 3-5): Transition Period - Reduced external work - Increased network mutual aid - Food self-sufficiency: 60-80% - Begin surplus production Phase 3 (Year 6+): Network Integration - Minimal external work - Network resource sharing primary - Food self-sufficiency: 80-100% - Surplus for sale/exchange ================================================================================ 3. CARBON SEQUESTRATION ================================================================================ 3.1 Sequestration Rates ----------------------- System Type | CO₂ (tons/ha/yr) | Method ---------------------|------------------|--------------------------- Mature Forest | 8-12 | Tree biomass accumulation Forest Garden | 5-10 | Mixed woody perennials Improved Pasture | 2-4 | Soil organic matter Veg Garden (no-till) | 1-3 | Soil organic matter Conventional Ag | -1 to +1 | Often net source 3.2 Climate Change Impact (2024-2044) ------------------------------------- Expected Changes in Finland: - Growing season: +2-3 weeks - Temperature: +1.5-2.5°C average - Precipitation: +10-15% annual (more extreme events) - Extreme weather frequency: 2-3x increase Implications: - Extended growing season (positive) - Heat stress on traditional crops - Increased pest/disease pressure - Flood and drought risk management critical ================================================================================ 4. NETWORK ECONOMICS ================================================================================ 4.1 Mutual Aid Decision Logic ----------------------------- Support Triggers: 1. Unit struggling but trajectory viable (3-yr projection positive) 2. Network reserve > €20,000 per existing unit 3. Unit demonstrates commitment and adaptation Support Withheld If: 1. Systemic issues (location, people, approach) 2. Lack of engagement with network 3. Network reserves insufficient 4.2 New Unit Establishment Criteria ----------------------------------- Requirements for Network-Funded Unit: - Network reserve: > €150,000 per existing unit - Waiting list: Minimum 3-4 committed people - Land identified: Suitable location/size - Existing units: All stable and sustainable - Mentorship: Established unit commits to support Typical Timeline: - Year 1: Single unit pilots - Year 2-3: First expansion (1-2 units) - Year 4-10: Steady growth (1-2 units/year) - Year 11-20: Accelerated (2-3 units/year as network matures) ================================================================================ 5. WELLBEING METRICS ================================================================================ 5.1 Measurement Categories -------------------------- Category | Indicators | Target ---------------------|-----------------------------|--------- Physical Health | Nutrition, activity, rest | 7-9/10 Mental Health | Stress, satisfaction | 7-9/10 Social Connection | Community, support | 7-9/10 Purpose & Meaning | Growth, contribution | 7-9/10 Environment | Nature, living conditions | 7-9/10 5.2 Survey Schedule ------------------- Frequency: Quarterly (4x per year) Method: Anonymous online survey Response rate target: >80% Results used for: - Individual support needs - Community decision making - Network resource allocation - Early warning of issues ================================================================================ 6. SIMULATION PARAMETERS ================================================================================ 6.1 Time and Scale ------------------ Simulation Period: 2024-2044 (20 years) Time Step: Monthly calculations Starting Condition: 1 unit, 3 people, €50,000 Target: 20 units across Europe by 2044 6.2 Growth Model ---------------- People Join Through: - Personal connections: 60% - Network publicity: 30% - Independent units joining: 10% Growth Rate Assumptions: - Year 1-2: Establishment phase (break-even by year 2) - Year 3: Second unit founded - Year 4-10: 1-2 new units per year - Year 11-20: 2-3 new units per year 6.3 Financial Assumptions ------------------------- - Initial capital per new unit: €150,000-200,000 - Monthly external income per working adult: €1,000-1,500 (declining) - Food self-sufficiency: 20% → 100% over 5 years - Network sharing: 10% → 40% of economy over 10 years ================================================================================ 7. DATA SOURCES ================================================================================ Primary Sources: - Finnish food production statistics (Luke) - Permaculture research (various) - IPCC climate reports - Finnish Meteorological Institute projections - Finnish construction and land price data (2024) - WHO nutritional guidelines - Finnish nutrition recommendations Expert Consultations: - Permaculture practitioners (Finland) - Organic farmers - Intentional community members - Economic sustainability researchers ================================================================================ 8. LIMITATIONS AND UNCERTAINTIES ================================================================================ Model Limitations: ✗ Simplified human behavior (real communities are complex!) ✗ Weather variability partially captured (monthly averages) ✗ Personal life events not modeled (illness, relationships, etc.) ✗ Political/regulatory changes not included ✗ Market dynamics simplified ✗ Assumes reasonable cooperation (not guaranteed!) Uncertainty Ranges: - Yield estimates: ±30% annual variation - Cost estimates: ±25% depending on choices - Timeline: ±50% for maturation phases - People joining: ±40% depends on many factors IMPORTANT: This simulation is a PLANNING TOOL, not a PREDICTION! Real outcomes will vary significantly based on: - People involved and their skills - Specific locations chosen - Weather and climate - Economic conditions - Social and political context - Luck and timing ================================================================================ END OF REPORT ================================================================================ For detailed interactive data, see: /methodology For live simulation, see: /simulation For network status, see: /